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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">humanitieslaw</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Гуманитарные и юридические исследования</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Humanities and law research</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2409-1030</issn><publisher><publisher-name>North-Caucasus Federal University</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.37493/2409-1030.2025.4.14</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">humanitieslaw-1641</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ИСТОРИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>HISTORICAL SCIENCES</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Начало Итальянских войн: Карл VIII, Флоренция и ее пророк</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>The Beginning of the Italian Wars: Charles VIII, Florence and its Prophet</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0000-3319-8517</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Тельменко</surname><given-names>Е. П.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Telmenko</surname><given-names>E. P.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Елена Павловна Тельменко, Доктор исторических наук, доцент </p><p>д. 1, ул. Пушкина, Ставрополь, 355017</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Elena P. Telmenko, Dr. Sc. (History), Associate Professor</p><p>1, Pushkina St., Stavropol, 355017</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Северо-Кавказский федеральный университет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>North-Caucasus Federal University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>23</day><month>01</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>12</volume><issue>4</issue><elocation-id>672–681</elocation-id><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Тельменко Е.П., 2026</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Тельменко Е.П.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Telmenko E.P.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://humanitieslaw.ncfu.ru/jour/article/view/1641">https://humanitieslaw.ncfu.ru/jour/article/view/1641</self-uri><abstract><sec><title>Введение</title><p>Введение. В конце XV в. широкое распространение в Западной Европе получили политические пророчества, в том числе послужившие оправданием Итальянских войн (1494 – 1559 гг.), начало которым положила Неаполитанская экспедиция французского короля Карла VIII. Среди тех, кто предвещал появление нового Карла Великого на Апеннинском полуострове, был и флорентийский пророк-реформатор Джироламо Савонарола. Анализ его текстов позволяет выявить особенности интерпретации монахом событий, потрясших Италию в 1494–1495 гг.</p></sec><sec><title>Материалы и методы</title><p>Материалы и методы. Проблемное поле статьи связано с такими направлениями исторических исследований, как интеллектуальная история и история идей. Анализ сочинений Савонаролы, свидетельств современников событий, а также французских политических пророчеств, потребовал применения сравнительного и интерпретативного методов, а также обращения к методам терминологического анализа.</p></sec><sec><title>Анализ</title><p>Анализ. Со времени обращения к профетическому способу проповедования и до начала Итальянских войн, Савонарола, в духе большинства современных ему проповедников, возвещает скорое обновление Церкви через различные бедствия. Апокалиптические предсказания воплощаются в образах меча, нового Кира, потопа. События, связанные с появлением французской армии осенью 1494 г., удостоверяют откровения доминиканца и окончательно утверждают его в статусе пророка. Несчастья, обрушившиеся на Италию, проповедник интерпретировал как «tribolazioni» – испытания, ниспосланные Богом, чтобы побудить жителей полуострова, и прежде всего флорентийцев, к покаянию, исправлению и обращению к истинной вере. При этом, монах практиковал два «способа» пророчеств: «profezia assoluta», которое исполнится в любом случае (реформа Церкви, процветание Флоренции), и «profezia condizionata», «обусловленное угрозой или обетованием», которое предполагало проявление свободной воли человека, и должно было придать стимул к коллективным и индивидуальным действиям, направленным на преобразование современного общества.</p></sec><sec><title>Результаты</title><p>Результаты. Во время Неаполитанской экспедиции Карла VIII Савонарола колеблется между апокалиптическим посланием, или скорее – предсказаниями в духе ветхозаветных пророков, сопровождавших призыв к исправлению угрозой божественного наказания (его инструментом выступал король Франции) и милленаристским видением будущего, относящимся прежде всего к избранному Господом городу – Флоренции, а также, в целом, к преобразованной Церкви.</p></sec></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Introduction</title><p>Introduction. At the end of the 15th century, political prophecies became widespread in Western Europe, including those that served as justification for the Italian Wars (1494–1559) initiated by the Neapolitan expedition of the French King Charles VIII. Among those who foretold the emergence of a new Charlemagne on the Apennine Peninsula was the Florentine prophet-reformer Girolamo Savonarola. The analysis of his texts allows identifying the peculiarities of the monk’s interpretation of the events that shook Italy in 1494– 1495. </p></sec><sec><title>Materials and methods</title><p>Materials and methods. The problematic field of the article is connected with such areas of historical research as intellectual history and the history of ideas. The analysis of Savonarola’s writings, the testimonies of contemporaries of events, as well as French political prophecies, required the application of comparative and interpretive methods, as well as the methods of terminological analysis.</p></sec><sec><title>Analysis</title><p>Analysis. From the time of his conversion to the prophetic method of preaching until the beginning of the Italian Wars, Savonarola, in the spirit of most contemporary preachers, proclaimed the imminent renewal of the Church through various calamities. Apocalyptic prophecies are embodied in the images of a sword, a new Cyrus, and a flood. The events surrounding the arrival of the French army in the autumn of 1494 confirm the Dominican’s revelations and definitively confirm his status as a prophet. The preacher interpreted the misfortunes that befell Italy as «tribolazioni» – trials sent by God to motivate the inhabitants of the peninsula, and above all the Florentines, to repentance, correction and conversion to the true faith. At the same time, the monk practiced two «methods» of prophecy: «profesia assoluta», which would be fulfilled in any case (reform of the Church, prosperity of Florence), and «profesia condizionata», «conditioned by threat or promise», which presupposed the manifestation of human free will, and was supposed to give impetus to collective and individual actions aimed at transforming the contemporary society.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Results. During the Naples expedition of Charles VIII, Savonarola vacillated between an apocalyptic message, or rather predictions in the spirit of the Old Testament prophets, who accompanied the call for correction with the threat of divine punishment (the instrument of which was the King of France), and a millenarian vision of the future, relating above all to the city chosen by the Lord – Florence, and, in general, to the transformed Church.</p></sec></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>Неаполитанская экспедиция</kwd><kwd>Карл VIII</kwd><kwd>Джироламо Савонарола</kwd><kwd>пророчество</kwd><kwd>Италия</kwd><kwd>Флоренция</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>Neapolitan expedition</kwd><kwd>Charles VIII</kwd><kwd>Girolamo Savonarola</kwd><kwd>prophecy</kwd><kwd>Italy</kwd><kwd>Florence</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Гвиччардини Ф. 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